After the Russian occupation of Crimea German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Obama, Putin, with whom she held telephone talks, " seem to have lost all touch with reality " and " lives in another world." Thus, almost no one expected that after the reshuffle in the Ukrainian government, Putin will go to the invasion of the Crimea.
Following the occupation, which led to confusion the entire international community, Western leaders can indefinitely escape the stories that Putin is " unbalanced psychopath of touch with reality." Today in the Western press is built the whole turn analysts who put Putin diagnosis. "Gipertoksicheskaya schizophrenia " or " Caesar Complex " - only one of these medical reports. According to this diagnosis, Putin is convinced that is the exceptional man in the world, and believes that a force that will change the course of history.
Of course, to explain the reckless actions of Putin, Western leaders can continue to find solace in the vast literature of psychological science, but for understanding the behavior of Putin's much more suitable material is still a theory of international relations. It is useful to clarify the emerging picture. Putin is not occupied Kiev. Or not (yet) conducted a military operation in eastern Ukraine. He realized the invasion of the Crimea, 60 % of the population is Russian. This step, which Western leaders regard as madness, just a test drive for Putin.
Mr. Putin is not "another world", as suggested by Merkel, on the contrary, Putin sees very dynamics of the world in which he lives, and he is better than Obama and Merkel understands codes new world order. He knows that he is not threatened, when in 2008 he started the war with Georgia. He knows that he was allowed to deprive the country of 20 % of the territory and turn them into your satellite. He knows that it is not threatened retribution for what he is de facto responsible for the massacres going on three years in Syria. He knows that it even rewarded for what he is a sponsor of the massacre, he became a key participant in international conferences and player application which cause the greatest concern. Putin sees his aggressive expansionist policy fit for purpose. He sees that in the new Cold War dynamics of the old Cold War are no longer valid. He sees before him a cynical Europe and America thirsty closed. He sees European states competing with each other for the opportunity to attract investment as dirty, but great amounts of their capital of Russian oligarchs. He sees that thanks to agreements in the energy he can bring to its axis the most powerful country in Europe - Germany.
However, he sees that the White House was late president, who could be called the most useless in the history Ameriki. Putin not afraid. After all, no one will force that could scare him. He knows that the only thing he will face in violation of the principles of international law - a few meager condemning promises. He sees that America and Europe like ornately and elegantly reflect on human rights, is not giving value data concepts. He knows that ranks for money laundering Russian oligarchs European countries and forget about their red outline America do not pose a threat. Explain Putin's behavior can not be crazy, because it acts within the limits of rationality grade. Putin - a tyrant, and like any tyrant, he continues to run their course, paying for their actions only stingy criticism against. With the occupation of the Crimean Putin, on the one hand, gives promise of the former Soviet countries, on the other - threatening of domestic opposition. Naturally, he does not want to hit protesters in Ukraine has become a source of inspiration for other countries and, of course, the opposition in his own country. If Putin does not face any serious reaction against the occupation of the Crimea, it will not be the last of his recklessness.
The next step - the Baltic states, as well as new alliances in the Middle East. Was the loudest reaction Baltic States ( Latvia, Lithuania and spontaneously called on NATO to consult urgently ), and this is no accident. They know that they might happen next. Putin behaves so not because he is mad or has lost touch with reality. He acts because he, on the contrary, the most rational player who in all emerging crises best analyzes realities. And he regretted nothing.
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